目錄
開篇 審時度勢 研判糧食安全新挑戰(zhàn)
第1章 緒論
1.1 研究背景與意義/003
1.2 國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀/011
1.3 研究目標(biāo)、分析框架及可能的創(chuàng)新/023
第2章 我國糧食供求變化與高水平開放下糧食安全新格局
2.1 消費端：提檔升級且峰值未至/034
2.2 生產(chǎn)端：能力提升但壓力加大/044
2.3 貿(mào)易端：重要性上升且引入新風(fēng)險/056
2.4 高水平開放下糧食安全新格局/067
2.5 本章小結(jié)/077
第3章 高水平開放格局下的糧食安全新挑戰(zhàn)
3.1 我國農(nóng)業(yè)對外開放階段與特征/079
3.2 高水平開放給我國糧食安全帶來新挑戰(zhàn)/085
012 健全高水平開放下糧食安全保障體系研究
3.3 新挑戰(zhàn)下亟須樹立糧食安全新思維/094
3.4 高水平開放格局下完善我國糧食安全保障體系/099
3.5 本章小結(jié)/111
上篇 立足國內(nèi) 優(yōu)化糧食支持保護政策體系
第4章 我國糧食支持保護政策演進與新時期轉(zhuǎn)型需求
4.1 我國糧食支持保護政策的演進歷程/115
4.2 我國糧食支持保護政策主要工具的實施及效果/123
4.3 高水平開放下我國糧食支持保護政策的轉(zhuǎn)型壓力與調(diào)整思路/146
4.4 本章小結(jié)/150
第5章 中美農(nóng)業(yè)國內(nèi)支持爭端與我國主糧價格支持政策的合規(guī)性壓力
5.1 WTO 關(guān)于市場價格支持補貼的相關(guān)規(guī)則/153
5.2 我國主糧價格支持政策的合規(guī)性壓力：DS511 案及其影響/157
5.3 國際規(guī)則約束下我國主糧價格支持政策的調(diào)整及可能的優(yōu)化策略/168
5.4 本章小結(jié)/173
第6章 WTO框架下我國主糧農(nóng)業(yè)保險政策的國際規(guī)則適應(yīng)性
6.1 WTO關(guān)于農(nóng)業(yè)保險補貼政策的相關(guān)規(guī)則/176
6.2 我國農(nóng)業(yè)保險政策與國際規(guī)則的適應(yīng)性： 基于試點方案的分析/188
6.3 國際規(guī)則約束下我國主糧保險補貼政策的調(diào)整及可能優(yōu)化策略/206
6.4 本章小結(jié)/210
第7章 我國糧食價格支持政策轉(zhuǎn)型方案與影響模擬
7.1 糧食價格支持政策調(diào)整的實踐探索與潛在挑戰(zhàn)/213
7.2 政策轉(zhuǎn)型的模擬方案設(shè)定與評估方法/218
7.3 政策轉(zhuǎn)型可能方案的影響模擬/229
7.4 本章小結(jié)/236
第8章 糧食支持保護政策轉(zhuǎn)型的國際經(jīng)驗及在我國的適用性分析
8.1 歐盟：多重目標(biāo)兼顧的政策體系/239
8.2 美國：全面風(fēng)險管控的政策體系/256
8.3 日本：保障糧食自給力的政策體系/267
8.4 國際糧食支持保護政策轉(zhuǎn)型經(jīng)驗在我國的適用性分析/283
8.5 本章小結(jié)/295
中篇 放眼國際 強化糧食進口風(fēng)險防控體系
第9章 我國糧食進口新格局與外部風(fēng)險防范需求分析
9.1 全球糧食市場變化與我國糧食進口新格局/300
9.2 新格局下我國糧食進口面臨的外部風(fēng)險/313
9.3 防范糧食進口外部風(fēng)險的思路與方向/321
014 健全高水平開放下糧食安全保障體系研究
9.4 本章小結(jié)/324
第10章 外部風(fēng)險對我國糧食安全的影響：以中美經(jīng)貿(mào)摩擦為例
10.1 中美貿(mào)易關(guān)系演變及農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易依存度/327
10.2 中美經(jīng)貿(mào)摩擦及其對我國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進口影響的典型事實/332
10.3 中美經(jīng)貿(mào)摩擦對我國糧食安全影響的量化評估/346
10.4 本章小結(jié)/362
第11章 外部風(fēng)險對我國糧食安全的影響：以俄烏沖突為例
11.1 俄烏兩國對全球及我國糧食貿(mào)易的重要性分析/365
11.2 俄烏沖突對全球及我國糧食安全影響的基本研判/370
11.3 出口限制視角下俄烏沖突對我國糧食進口的潛在影響評估/385
11.4 本章小結(jié)/392
第12章 相互依賴視角下糧食進口來源多元化的思路與策略
12.1 市場供需主體相互依賴與進口來源地布局/395
12.2 優(yōu)化重點品種來源地布局的可行性分析/399
12.3 相互依賴視角下我國糧食進口來源地布局優(yōu)化：
以大豆為例/403
12.4 本章小結(jié)/420
第13章 產(chǎn)品替代視角下食物進口種類多元化的思路與策略
13.1 多元化食物進口格局與糧食安全保障能力提升/423
13.2 優(yōu)化多元食物進口品種結(jié)構(gòu)的可行性分析/429
13.3 多元化食物進口對糧食安全的潛在影響評估：以擴大肉類進口為例/445
13.4 構(gòu)建多元化食物進口格局防范外部風(fēng)險的對策建議/460
13.5 本章小結(jié)/463
下篇 合作共贏 推動構(gòu)建全球糧農(nóng)治理新體系
第14章 農(nóng)業(yè)貿(mào)易治理體系與全球糧食安全：轉(zhuǎn)型壓力與改革需求
14.1 全球農(nóng)業(yè)貿(mào)易治理體系與糧食安全/468
14.2 全球農(nóng)業(yè)貿(mào)易治理體系面臨的失序困境/473
14.3 糧食安全風(fēng)險與全球農(nóng)業(yè)貿(mào)易治理體系改革需求/481
14.4 本章小結(jié)/489
第15章 WTO農(nóng)業(yè)談判中糧食安全公共儲備議題的演進、爭議與前景
15.1 WTO農(nóng)業(yè)談判中糧食安全問題的演進歷程/491
15.2 糧食安全公共儲備巴厘決議的成果及其局限性/504
15.3 糧食安全公共儲備永久性解決方案所面臨的挑戰(zhàn)/511
15.4 糧食安全公共儲備議題的談判前景展望/519
15.5 本章小結(jié)/523
016 健全高水平開放下糧食安全保障體系研究
第16章 WTO農(nóng)業(yè)國內(nèi)支持規(guī)則談判利益分歧與改革動向
16.1 農(nóng)業(yè)國內(nèi)支持規(guī)則改革主要分歧和關(guān)鍵訴求/525
16.2 凱恩斯集團最新改革主張及其影響分析/531
16.3 凱恩斯集團提案存在的問題及發(fā)展中成員主張/548
16.4 WTO農(nóng)業(yè)國內(nèi)支持改革方向與路徑/559
16.5 本章小結(jié)/562
第17章 農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口限制規(guī)則的爭議問題與改革思路
17.1 全球農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口限制措施的特征及影響/565
17.2 WTO農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口限制規(guī)則及其爭議問題/573
17.3 WTO農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口限制規(guī)則的談判進展及改革思路/579
17.4 本章小結(jié)/589
第18章 新格局下中國參與全球糧食安全治理體系的角色定位與發(fā)展構(gòu)想
18.1 百年變局下全球糧食安全面臨的重大挑戰(zhàn)/592
18.2 全球糧食安全治理的中國實踐與發(fā)展轉(zhuǎn)型/597
18.3 中國深度參與全球糧食安全治理的角色定位與
未來展望/610
18.4 本章小結(jié)/616
參考文獻(xiàn)/617
索引/659
CONTENTS
PROLOGUE: ASSESSING THE SITUATION: IDENTIFYING
NEW CHALLENGES TO FOOD SECURITY IN CHINA
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Research Background and Research Significance/003
1.2 Overview of Domestic and International Researches/011
1.3 Research Objectives, Analytical Frameworks and Possible Innovations/023
CHAPTER 2 CHANGING DYNAMICS IN CHINA’S FOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND AND THE NEW ANDSCAPE OF FOOD SECURITY IN THE ERA OF HIGH-LEVEL GLOBALIZATION
2.1 Consumption: Upgrading and Continuous Growth/034
2.2 Production: Enhanced Capability with Mounting Pressure/044
2.3 Trade: Rising Importance and Emerging Risks/056
2.4 New Food Security Landscape in the Era of High-Level Globalization/067
2.5 Summary/077
CHAPTER 3 NEW CHALLENGES TO CHINA’S FOOD SECURITY IN THE ERA OF HIGH-LEVEL GLOBALIZATION
3.1 Phases and Characteristics of China’s Agricultural Opening-up/079
3.2 Emerging Challenges to China’s Food Security in the Era of High-Level Globalization/085
3.3 The Need for New Food Security Strategy amidst New Challenges/094
3.4 Strengthening China’s Food Security System in the Era of High-Level Globalization/099
3.5 Summary/111
PART I: ON DOMESTIC PRODUCTION: OPTIMIZING CHINA ’S FOOD PRODUCTION SUPPORT POLICY SY STEM
CHAPTER 4 EVOLUTION OF CHINA’S PRODUCTION SUPPORT POLICIES FOR STAPLE FOODS AND TRANSFORMATION REQUIREMENTS IN NEW ERA
4.1 Historical Evolution of China’s Production Support Policies for Staple Foods/115
4.2 Implementation and Impact of China’s Major Production Support Policy Measures for Staple Foods/123
4.3 Transformation Pressure and Adaptation Strategies for China’s Food Production Support Policies in the Era of High-Level Globalization/146
4.4 Summary/150
CHAPTER 5 CHINA-US AGRICULTURAL DOMESTIC SUPPORT DISPUTES AND COMPLIANCE PRESSURE ON CHINA’S STAPLE FOOD PRICE SUPPORT POLICIES
5.1 WTO Rules on Market Price Support Subsidies/153
5.2 Compliance Pressure on China’s Staple Food Price Support Policies: The DS511 Case and Its Implications/157
5.3 Adjustment and Optimization Strategies for China’s Staple Food Price Support Policies under WTO Rules/168
5.4 Summary/173
CHAPTER 6 ADAPTABILITY OF CHINA’S AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE POLICIES FOR STAPLE FOODS UNDER WTO RULES
6.1 WTO Rules on Agricultural Insurance Subsidy Policies/176
6.2 Adaptability of China’s Agricultural Insurance Policies under WTO Rules:Analysis of A Pilot Program/188
6.3 Adjustment and Optimization Strategies for China’s Staple Food Insurance Subsidy Policies under International Rules/206
6.4 Summary/210
CHAPTER 7 TRANSFORMATION PLANS AND IMPACT SIMULATIONS OF CHINA’S FOOD PRICE SUPPORT POLICIES
7.1 Exploratory Practices and Potential Challenges in Transforming Staple Food Price Support Policies/213
7.2 Modeling and Evaluation Methods for Policy Transition/218
7.3 Impact Simulations of Alternative Policy Transition Plans/229
7.4 Summary/236
CHAPTER 8 INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCES IN TRANSFORMING FOOD PRODUCTION SUPPORT POLICIES AND APPLICABILITY TO CHINA
8.1 The EU: The Policy System Incorporating Multiple Objectives/239
8.2 The U.S.: The Policy System with Comprehensive Risk Management/256
8.3 Japan: The Policy System Ensuring Food Self-Supply Capacity/267
8.4 Applicability of International Experiences to China’s Transformation of Food Production Support Policies/283
8.5 Summary/295
PART II: GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE: STRENGTHENING RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FOR CHINA’S FOOD IMPORTS CHAPTER 9 CHINA’S EVOLVING FOOD IMPORT LANDSCAPE AND THE NEED FOR EXTERNAL RISK MANAGEMENT
9.1 Global Food Market Dynamics and New Landscape of China’s Food Imports/300
9.2 External Risks to China’s Food Imports in the New Era/313
9.3 Strategies and Directions for Managing External Risks to China’s Food Imports/321
9.4 Summary/324
CHAPTER 10 IMPACT OF EXTERNAL RISKS ON CHINA’S FOOD SECURITY: A CASE STUDY OF THE SINO-US TRADE FRICTIONS
10.1 Evolution of Sino-US Trade Relations and Agricultural Trade Dependence/327
10.2 Stylized Facts on the Sino-US Trade Disputes and Impact on China’s Agricultural Imports/332
10.3 Quantitative Assessment of the Impact of Sino-US Trade Frictions on China’s Food Security/346
10.4 Summary/362
CHAPTER 11 IMPACT OF EXTERNAL RISKS ON CHINA’S FOOD SECURITY: A CASE STUDY OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT
11.1 Significance of Russia and Ukraine in Global and China’s Food Trade/365
11.2 Primary Assessment of the Impact of Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Global and China’s Food Security/370
11.3 Evaluating the Potential Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on China’s Food Imports from the Perspective of Export Restrictions/385
11.4 Summary/392
CHAPTER 12 CHINA’S FOOD IMPORT SOURCE DIVERSIFICATION STRATEGIES FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF TRADE INTERDEPENDENCE
12.1 Supply-Demand Interdependence and Geographic Allocation of Import Sources/395
12.2 Feasibility Analysis of Optimizing Import Sources of Critical Food Products/399
12.3 Geography Optimization of Import Sources for China’s Food Import from the Perspective of Trade Interdependence: A Case Study of Soybeans/403
12.4 Summary/420
CHAPTER 13 STRATEGIES FOR DIVERSIFYING CHINA’S FOOD IMPORT VARIETIES FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF PRODUCT SUBSTITUTION
13.1 Food Import Diversification and Its Role in Strengthening Food Security/423
13.2 Feasibility Analysis of Optimizing Food Imports by Variety Patterns/429
13.3 Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Import Diversification on China’s Food Security: A Case Study of Expanding Meat Imports/445
13.4 Policy Recommendations for Building a Diversified Food Import Framework for External Risks Management/460
13.5 Summary/463
PART III: WIN-WIN COOPERATION: ADVANCING TOWARD A NEW GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL GOVERNANCE SYSTEM
CHAPTER 14 AGRICULTURAL TRADE GOVERNANCE SYSTEM AND GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY: TRANSFORMATION PRESSURE AND REFORM NEEDS
14.1 Global Agricultural Trade Governance System and Food Security/468
14.2 Disorder and Challenges Facing the Global Agricultural Trade Governance System/473
14.3 Food Security Risks and the Need for Reforming Global Agricultural Trade Governance System/481
14.4 Summary/489
CHAPTER 15 EVOLUTION, CONTROVERSIES, AND PROSPECTS OF PUBLIC STOCKHOLDING PROGRAMS FOR FOOD SECURITY IN WTO AGRICULTURAL NEGOTIATIONS
15.1 Evolution Phases of Food Security Issues in WTO Agricultural Negotiations/491
15.2 Achievements and Limitations of the Bali Decision on Public Stockholding Programs for Food Security/504
15.3 Challenges to Permanent Solutions for Public Stockholding Programs for Food Security/511
15.4 Prospects for Negotiations on Public Stockholding Programs for Food Security/519
15.5 Summary/523
CHAPTER 16 DIVERGING INTERESTS AND REFORM TRENDS IN WTONEGOTIATIONS ON AGRICULTURAL DOMESTIC SUPPORT RULES
16.1 Key Disputes and Reform Priorities Relating to WTO Agricultural Domestic Support Rules/525
16.2 Analysis of Recent Reform Proposals by the Cairns Group and Potential Implications/531
16.3 Inherent Problems in the Cairns’ Proposals and Propositions from the Perspective of Developing Nations/548
16.4 Future Directions and Pathways for Reforming WTO Rules on Agricultural Domestic Support/559
16.5 Summary/562
CHAPTER 17 CONTROVERSIES AND REFORM APPROACHES IN AGRICULTURAL EXPORT RESTRICTION RULES
17.1 Characteristics of Global Agricultural Export Restrictions and Trade Impacts/565
17.2 WTO Rules on Agricultural Export Restrictions and Inherent Controversies/573
17.3 WTO Negotiation Progress and Reform Strategies on Agricultural Export Restrictions Rules/579
17.4 Summary/589
CHAPTER 18 CHINA’S POSITIONING AND FUTURE PROSPECTS IN GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY GOVERNANCE IN THE NEW ERA
18.1 Major Challenges to Global Food Security in the Context of Profound Changes Unseen in A Century/592
18.2 China’s Practices and Strategy Transformation in Global Food Security Governance/597
18.3 China’s Strategic Role and Future Prospects for In-Depth Engagement in Global Food Security Governance/610
18.4 Summary/616
REFERENCES/617
INDEX/659